The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made it clear that in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2050.

The world is at a critical juncture in its battle against industrial pollution, global warming, and resulting climate change. As leaders from around the world are set to gather at COP28 in Dubai, there is a sense of urgency and optimism that ambitious targets and universal strategies will be agreed upon in preparation for the worst-case scenario that the climate crisis presents to our built environment. This article explores the significance of COP28, the challenges faced by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in its transition to a post-carbon economy, Expo City Dubai, and the potential of Expo 2030 as a global platform for the acceleration of the next great Industrial Revolution—a global circular economy.

The Conference of the Parties (COP) dates back to COP1 held in Berlin in 1995. At that time atmospheric CO2 levels were roughly 360.61 ppm, and were already becoming a cause for concern. COP1 was the first time that global leaders from around the world had come together to discuss climate change and the projected impacts of global warming on the built environment. COP1 resulted in the Berlin Mandate, which paved the way for legally binding climate agreements. It also highlighted the importance of collaboration between global governments and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

COP1 began to sound the alarm by drawing attention to compelling new evidence: ice core samples show that carbon dioxide levels have remained relatively constant at around 280 ppm for nearly 6,000 years before the Industrial Revolution. Today, however, CO2 levels are surging at an unprecedented pace, a geological anomaly:

2023: “Geological evidence has shown that the last time atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were as high as they are today (+416 ppm) was during the Pliocene Epoch, between 2.6 and 5.3 million years ago. At that time, global sea level was significantly higher than it is today, with estimates ranging from 15 to 25 meters.”

The time to act is now!

COP28 UAE (2023) 416.33ppm

As global leaders begin to convene at COP28, scheduled from November 30 to December 12, 2023, hosted at Expo City Dubai, UAE, we are once again provided with the opportunity for global leaders to come together in an attempt to agree on coordinated strategies for reducing global greenhouse emissions, mobilize finance, and to accelerate the deployment of clean energy technologies.

Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and UAE Special Envoy for Climate Change has been appointed to serve as COP 28 President-Designate.

Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber has been instrumental in spearheading the UAE's green agenda, while championing the importance of the energy transition to accelerate economic growth and fulfill environmental goals.

The COP28 Presidency has identified four key areas of focus:

Fast-tracking the energy transition and slashing emissions before 2030

Transforming climate finance, by delivering on old promises and setting the framework for a new deal on finance

Putting nature, people, lives, and livelihoods at the heart of climate action

Mobilizing for the most inclusive COP ever

“As a nation at the crossroads of the globe, the UAE is well-positioned to build bridges, foster consensus and bring the world together in one shared mission to keep 1.5C alive and protect the planet for the generations who will follow us.” ~COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber
. . .

Let’s take a moment to reflect through the lens of everyday citizens: COP events are off the radar for most people. They are elusive, and exclusive—an elite gathering of delegates from major corporations, NGOs, consultancy firms, and government representatives to deliberate on climate change in an attempt to forge a global alliance and strategy that includes the rapid decoupling of our global economy’s dependance on fossil fuels—A daunting challenge to say the least.

After each COP event, high paid marketers launch a wave of global PR campaigns to communicate the developments to the international community. However, despite the optimism these agreements inspire in the minds of parties present and those who are actively engaged in the work, most of the world’s population remains disengaged and unaware. At the same time, the voices of citizens that are deeply concerned are often overlooked, marginalized, and ignored.

It’s easy to get discouraged—the level of change required to respond to the challenges now present in the 21st century are unprecedented in human history, however:

"Reality has a built-in bias towards possibility: the laws of probability suggest that if we can imagine a plan of action, we can make it reality.”

We must find a way to actively engage each and everyone of Earth citizens in the urgency of this moment, where if we get it right, we might be able to adapt our global built environments to better care for our living world. We must find a way to work together.

Word and Color of the Year of the Dragon (2024)

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION & MITIGATION

While fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas, and the use and disposal of petroleum-based mass produced consumer products are the primary contributors to the global pollution crisis and climate change, addressing the driving forces behind the climate crisis requires a rapid transition to clean energy sources and the redesign of virtually everything our modern economy has to offer. However, transitioning to a post-carbon economic system is easier said than done.

"The greatest challenge we face today is our collective ability to kick-start a new co-creative economic chain reaction that is both robust and open to change.”

How will the UAE adapt to the economic transformation that rapid decarbonization of the global energy infrastructure requires?

The UAE is one of the world’s largest oil producers and exporters, and its economy is heavily reliant on the hydrocarbon sector. As the world transitions to a clean energy economy, the UAE faces significant economic challenges. Looking into the future, one of the greatest challenges that global warming presents to the UAE, beyond the economic disruption that rapid decarbonization will require, is sea-level rise:

“The scenario of one-meter sea level rise would lead to UAE’s loss of 1,155 square kilometers of the country’s coast by 2050. Nine meters of sea level rising would flood almost all of Abu Dhabi and Dubai.”

By a continued delay of a concerted action on the reduction of global greenhouse emissions, and by kicking the can of decarbonization down the road a few more years, the window of opportunity to mitigate the worst-case climate scenarios that global warming presents to the built environment has closed. Now, with our feet now firmly planted in the Anthropocene, our current geological epoch defined by the impact of human activity on the Earth’s climate and environment, adaptation is key!

"The redesign of our built environment to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise, extreme weather events, heat waves, and economic disruptions, is imperative. We must begin this creative process today!”

In response to the disruption that rapid decarbonization presents to the global economy, we hear a lot about the need for a just transition — a term often used in the context of the technological unemployment that results from technological advancement. A just transition is seen as a way to address the potential negative impacts of technological advancement by creating new jobs and opportunities in new sectors, while also providing support to workers and communities that are displaced by the process of Industrial Revolution.

Adapting to the impacts of climate change will require the redesign of just about everything our modern economy has to offer. This is where the fun begins!

EXPO 2020: CONNECTING MINDS, CREATING THE FUTURE

Building on the past momentum that The World Fair | World Expo’s have had in international development, Expo 2020 Dubai inspired the world to think about the future in new and exciting ways. The Expo’s theme, “Connecting Minds, Creating the Future” challenged visitors to imagine a better future for all.

Expo City Dubai is now a state-of-the-art destination HUB that builds on the legacy of Expo 2020 to advance sustainability and circularity principles. Free of single-use plastic, Expo City Dubai is the UAE’s first 15-minute city, making it a global benchmark for healthy communities. Expo City Dubai features a network of walkable and bikeable streets, as well as a public transit system that connects all of the major attractions. Expo City Dubai is home to a variety of businesses, schools, and cultural institutions, ensuring that its residents and visitors have everything they need within a short distance.

Expo City Dubai is part of the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan and aims to become an ideal smart and futuristic city for business and innovation making it the ideal venue to host COP28, and it arrives at a time when the world is facing a number of urgent climate challenges.

The Expo site as a whole was designed to be a model for sustainable urban planning:

WHY EXPO 2030?

As per the IPCC’s recommendations, the global community has a critical six-year window left to halve global greenhouse emissions in an attempt to stabilize Earth’s ecosystems amid an increasingly industrialized world.

"What if” we could facilitate the rapid decarbonization of our shared energy infrastructure, accelerate a global circular economy transition, and begin to regenerate life on Earth with a global world fair event— EXPO 2030? "What if" we could make this transition fun?

By leveraging The World Fair | Expo 2030 as the catalyst for global adaptation and mitigation measures, we can infuse an element of collective action and cultural identity into the post-carbon economic transition. By embracing Expo 2030 as the global platform, we can make the journey toward sustainability an engaging and enjoyable process, motivating individuals and societies to actively participate in the vital efforts of the adaptation and rewilding measures needed to combat the impacts of global warming, while cultivating a sense of global unity and shared responsibility for creating a healthier world for future generations.

CIRCULAR CITIES & REGIONS

A global circular economy, often referred to as the next great Industrial Revolution, is the design challenge for the 21st century. Cities on the frontline of the climate crisis will play a crucial role in accelerating this transformation by cultivating and mainstreaming an economic shift that fundamentally revamps the global economic system.

Circular Cities are the applied logistics of a global circular economy, at scale—an economic system based on three principles:

Design out waste and pollution,
Keep material flows circulating indefinitely,
and, most importantly, Regenerate Earth Ecosystems

The Circular Cities & Regions Initiative is a crucial component of the EU Circular Economy Action Plan, aiming to promote resource efficiency and circularity in urban and regional areas across Europe and the world. Integrating Expo 2030 with this initiative can amplify its impact and foster a global movement towards a circular economy.

By aligning Expo 2030 with the Circular Cities & Regions Initiative, we can harness the creative potential of The World Fair to accelerate the transition towards a global circular economy and the ambitious goal of halving global greenhouse emissions by 2030.

Expo 2030 can serve as the catalyst for transformative action, collaboration, innovation by empowering individuals, communities, and governments to embrace a circular future.

GETTING GROUNDED

Under the current leadership of the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE) five cities have submitted letters of candidatures as possible host cities for EXPO 2030: Moscow, Russia; Odessa, Ukraine; Rome, Italy; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; and Busan, South Korea. Tragically, as a result of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, Moscow and Odesa have been disqualified, leaving Roma, Riyadh, and Busan in the running. The winning "host city" is scheduled to be announced on November 28th, 2023.

THE WORLD FAIR (EXPO 2030) AS THE ENGINE FOR ECONOMIC & EARTH REGENERATION

"What if" we could extend the candidature process as an open invitation to the global community to join EXPO 2030—Earth’s First Global World Fair Event! A World Fair that would happen simultaneously in every city, town, community, and region around our world.

As we are now very much aware, we have a brief moment in time where we can collectively begin to calibrate our newly emergent industrial ecology with Earth ecosystems in an attempt to avoid the worst-case scenario of the sixth-mass extinction.

Imagine a world where every community is invited to participate in a global celebration of innovation, collaboration, and sustainability. Each community could showcase its own unique contributions to the circular economy, from cutting-edge renewable energy technologies to traditional sustainable practices that have been passed down for generations.

Such an event could be a tremendous opportunity to promote cross-cultural learning and exchange of ideas. It could also help to break down silos and cultivate the collaboration between different sectors, such as business, government, and civil society.

In addition to its economic and social benefits, a global world fair could also play a vital role in Earth regeneration. By showcasing innovative circular economy solutions and sustainable practices, we can inspire people from around the world to adopt more sustainable lifestyles and help to protect our planet.

Of course, organizing a global world fair would be a massive undertaking, as is the goal of rapid decarbonization. It would require a significant investment of time, resources, and coordination. However, the potential benefits far outweigh the challenges.

Together, let's urge the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE) to consider extending the candidature process and inviting the global community to join Expo 2030—Earth's First Global World Fair Event. It would be a truly momentous occasion, and one that would be remembered for generations to come.

It's definitely something fun to think about!

To be continued…

Circular Cities

Monday, November 13, 2023

The Urgent Call for Action at COP28 and the Potential of Expo 2030 in the Race to Zero